Backtracking Direct, Indirect and Total Effects
stat.ME, cs.LG, stat.ML
Submitted: 2026-10-20
Updated: 2026-10-20
License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
The gist: Natural direct and indirect effects are defined through cross-world interventional counterfactuals.
Abstract
Natural direct and indirect effects are defined through cross-world interventional counterfactuals. We propose an alternative construction based on backtracking counterfactuals. Rather than intervening on the treatment or mediator, we use a backtracking conditional distribution to construct an alternative exogenous state satisfying a desired treatment-mediator constraint. This yields the backtracking direct and indirect effects, and also the backtracking total effect. Likewise, we adapt the population intervention effects.
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