Global probabilistic forecasting of air pollution

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) refers to particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 micrometre or less. It comes from human activities, such as traffic and industry, and from wildfires, desert dust and gases emitted by vegetation. Short-term exposure to it accounts for about a million deaths a year. Operational forecasts run on grids tens of kilometres wide, which hide the pollution breathed by nearly two hundred million people a day. Machine learning has transformed weather forecasting, but data-driven forecasts of air pollution still blur extremes and lose skill as the air travels. Here we introduce Foehn, a generative model that learns from global kilometre-scale estimates of PM2.5 and computes where the air comes from. Over a year of retrospective forecasts, it outperforms the operational forecast at three stations in four and forecasts at the scale of this hidden exposure. Its ensembles are calibrated, and their mean detects local pollution extremes four days ahead as well as the operational forecast does one day ahead. Such forecasts could warn the millions whom coarse maps miss, once kilometre-scale data are available in real time.