Beyond Calibration: Do a Typed-Decision Model's Probabilities Obey the Probability Axioms?

arXiv:2609.33209 · cs.CL, cs.AI, cs.LG · Submitted 2026-09-27 · Read on arXiv

cs.CL, cs.AI, cs.LG

Submitted: 2026-09-27

Updated: 2026-09-27

Code: https://github.com/bro789/typed-decision-coherence

Terminology

• Calibration — 44× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Axioms — 21× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Consistency — 14× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Additivity — 8× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Benchmark — 7× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Accuracy — 5× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing — 4× in this paper
• Adam — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Robustness — 2× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Bayesian Inference — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Benchmarking — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Eleventh International Conference on Learning Representations — 1× in this paper
• Fine-Tuning — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Hallucination — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Quantization — 1× in this paper · explained in 12 episodes
• Reinforcement Learning — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Self-consistency — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Trace — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Transformer — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• alpha — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode

Sources

• Calibrated Decisions at Scale: Converting Police Crash Narratives into Probabilistic Crash Variables with a System One Model (Jev)
• this-that-model-1.0: A typed decision model that decides in 30 ms, for a millionth of a cent
• Rethinking Uncertainty Evaluation in Large Language Models
• JEV-as-a-Judge: Accept When Confident, Escalate When Unsure
• Open-Jev Judgments on CallScreenBench: Calibrated One-Pass Scam Screening with a Small Language Model
• REFLEX with Jev for Efficient Selective Control in LLM Agents
• Jev for Scientific Decisions: Evaluating Semantic Choices and Their Consequences
• Type-Safe Is Not Error-Free: A Constrained Decision Head Follows the Option Name, Not the Rubric Bound to It
• From Token Probabilities to Semantic Constraints: Towards Declarative Probabilistic Evaluation of Language Models
• Dutch Books for Language Models
• Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know

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