Evidence-Grounded Auditing of Identification Assumptions in Climate-Policy Causal Evaluations

arXiv:2609.30867 · cs.CL · Submitted 2026-09-25 · Read on arXiv

cs.CL

Submitted: 2026-09-25

Updated: 2026-09-25

Code: https://github.com/yonghongzhang-io/ARGUS

Terminology

• Benchmark — 31× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Calibration — 18× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Abstention — 16× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Ablation — 11× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Trace — 8× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Robustness — 6× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Causal Reasoning — 4× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Grounding — 4× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Benchmarking — 3× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Clustering — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Transactions on Machine Learning Research — 3× in this paper
• Consistency — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Uncertainty Quantification — 2× in this paper · explained in 8 episodes
• Verification — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Accountability — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Accuracy — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Causal Inference — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Generalization — 1× in this paper · explained in 13 episodes
• In International Conference on Learning Representations — 1× in this paper
• LLM-as-a-Judge — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Large Language Model (LLM) — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Provenance — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Reasoning Traces — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Scaffolding — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Task Decomposition — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Sources

• CLIMATE-FEVER: A Dataset for Verification of Real-World Climate Claims
• EconCausal: A Context-Aware Economic Reasoning Benchmark for Large Language Models
• The AI Scientist: Towards Fully Automated Open-Ended Scientific Discovery
• CausalReasoningBenchmark: A Real-World Benchmark for Disentangled Evaluation of Causal Identification and Estimation
• CausalVerify: End-to-End Verification of Causal Analyses by Language Models

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