Standard estimators cannot represent fault-tolerant workloads at measured error rates: evaluated, evidence-based uncertainty for quantum resource estimation

arXiv:2610.10490 · quant-ph · Submitted 2026-10-07 · Read on arXiv

quant-ph

Submitted: 2026-10-07

Updated: 2026-10-07

Terminology

• Calibration — 10× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Distillation — 6× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Uncertainty Quantification — 4× in this paper · explained in 8 episodes
• Benchmark — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Copula — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Robustness — 2× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Calibration Failure — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Consistency — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Core — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Decode — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Generative AI — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Shapley values — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Verification — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Sources

• Uncertainty Quantification for Quantum Computing
• Assessing requirements to scale to practical quantum advantage
• How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits
• Expressing and Analyzing Quantum Algorithms with Qualtran
• The FLuid Allocation of Surface code Qubits (FLASQ) cost model for early fault-tolerant quantum algorithms
• SPARO: Surface-code Pauli-based Architectural Resource Optimization for Fault-tolerant Quantum Computing
• Forecasting timelines of quantum computing

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• Theory of quantum-enhanced interferometry with general Markovian light sources
• A convergent hierarchy of spectral gap certificates for qubit Hamiltonians
• Universal Bound and Phase Transition in Many-Body Fermionic Non-Gaussianity