CruxBench: A Benchmark of Information Discovery

arXiv:2609.35879 · cs.CL, cs.AI · Submitted 2026-09-26 · Read on arXiv

cs.CL, cs.AI

Submitted: 2026-09-26

Updated: 2026-09-26

Code: https://github.com/ai-prophet/cruxbench

Terminology

• Benchmark — 27× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• AUC — 11× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Value of Information — 9× in this paper
• Cosine Similarity — 8× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Verification — 7× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Accuracy — 6× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Calibration — 5× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Information Gain — 5× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Semantic Similarity — 5× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Aggregation — 3× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Grounding — 3× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Robustness — 3× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Verifier — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Benchmarking — 2× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Consistency — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Fine-Tuning — 2× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Large Language Models (LLMs) — 2× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Selection Bias — 2× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Ablation — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Agentic System — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Exchangeability — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Failure Modes — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Generalization — 1× in this paper · explained in 13 episodes
• Monte Carlo Analysis — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Reinforcement Learning — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes

Sources

• AIA Forecaster: Technical Report
• Agentic Forecasting with Structured Linguistic Beliefs
• LLMs Can Teach Themselves to Better Predict the Future
• Outcome-based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future
• Future-as-Label: Scalable Supervision from Real-World Outcomes
• Aligning LLMs with Human Uncertainty: A Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator for LLM Forecasting
• Automating Forecasting Question Generation and Resolution for AI Evaluation
• Qwen3 Technical Report
• The Llama 3 Herd of Models

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