How Synthetic Labels Improve Conformal Prediction: A Perspective on Conditional Coverage

arXiv:2609.33482 · cs.LG, stat.ME · Submitted 2026-09-27 · Read on arXiv

cs.LG, stat.ME

Submitted: 2026-09-27

Updated: 2026-09-27

Code: https://github.com/Cqyiiii/synthetic-label-conformal

Terminology

• Calibration — 55× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Conformal Prediction — 21× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Benchmark — 13× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Consistency — 9× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Accuracy — 6× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Alignment — 6× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Semi-supervised Learning — 4× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Regret — 3× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Robustness — 3× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Worst-Slice Coverage — 2× in this paper
• Ablation — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Adam — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Adaptation — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Aggregation — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Error Decomposition — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Exchangeability — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Heteroscedasticity — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Normalizing Flow — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Normalizing Flows — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Predictive Maintenance — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Rectified Conformal Prediction — 1× in this paper
• Regularization — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Self-Supervised Learning — 1× in this paper · explained in 8 episodes
• Synthetic-Powered Predictive Inference — 1× in this paper
• Verification — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Sources

• PPI++: Efficient Prediction-Powered Inference
• Colorful Pinball: Density-Weighted Quantile Regression for Conditional Guarantee of Conformal Prediction
• Predictions as Surrogates: Revisiting Surrogate Outcomes in the Age of AI
• Semi-Supervised Conformal Prediction With Unlabeled Nonconformity Score

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