Can LLMs Predict the Future? A Brier Score Analysis of Prediction Markets
cs.AI
Submitted: 2026-09-26
Updated: 2026-09-26
Terminology
Sources
- AIA Forecaster: Technical Report
- Simulated Ignorance Fails: A Systematic Study of LLM Behaviors on Forecasting Problems Before Model Knowledge Cutoff
- The Memorization Problem: Can We Trust LLMs' Economic Forecasts?
- Evaluating LLMs on Real-World Forecasting Against Expert Forecasters
- Do Large Language Models Know What They Don't Know? Kalshibench: A New Benchmark for Evaluating Epistemic Calibration via Prediction Markets
- Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters
- Qwen2.5 Technical Report
- Data Contamination Through the Lens of Time
- Large Language Model Prediction Capabilities: Evidence from a Real-World Forecasting Tournament
- LLMs Can Teach Themselves to Better Predict the Future
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