Can Open-Weight Large Language Models (LLMs) Simulate Human Survey Populations? A Cross-Instrument Calibration Study

arXiv:2609.32638 · cs.AI · Submitted 2026-09-26 · Read on arXiv

cs.AI

Submitted: 2026-09-26

Updated: 2026-09-26

Terminology

• Calibration — 19× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Big Five Inventory — 16× in this paper
• Large Language Models (LLMs) — 7× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Digital Twin — 6× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Social Desirability Scale — 6× in this paper
• Regulatory Focus Scale — 5× in this paper
• Consumer Minimalism Scale — 4× in this paper
• Need for Cognition Scale — 4× in this paper
• Need for Uniqueness Scale — 3× in this paper
• Self-Concept Clarity Scale — 3× in this paper
• Self-Monitoring Scale — 3× in this paper
• Verification — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Fine-Tuning — 2× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Persona Prompting — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• AI Agents — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Accuracy — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Adam — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Alignment — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Benchmark — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Consistency — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Fidelity — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Generative AI — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Robustness — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes

Sources

• Distribution-First Population Simulation: Collapse, Calibration, and Recall in Non-WEIRD LLM Persona Modeling
• LLM Agents Grounded in Self-Reports Enable General-Purpose Simulation of Individuals
• Limited Ability of LLMs to Simulate Human Psychological Behaviours: a Psychometric Analysis

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