Suitable Measures for the Potential Operational Utility of AI NWP Rainfall Forecasts Over Africa

arXiv:2609.31775 · stat.AP, cs.LG, physics.ao-ph · Submitted 2026-09-24 · Read on arXiv

stat.AP, cs.LG, physics.ao-ph

Submitted: 2026-09-24

Updated: 2026-09-24

Code: https://github.com/google-deepmind/weathernext

Terminology

• Verification — 25× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Benchmark — 10× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Calibration — 10× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Isotonic Distributional Regression — 7× in this paper
• Numerical Weather Prediction — 7× in this paper
• Accuracy — 5× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• February March April and May — 5× in this paper
• Machine Learning — 5× in this paper
• Artificial Intelligence — 4× in this paper
• Cumulative Distribution Function — 3× in this paper
• Fine-Tuning — 3× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Functional Generative Network — 3× in this paper
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score — 2× in this paper
• Integrated Forecasting System — 2× in this paper
• NOAA Climate Prediction Center — 2× in this paper
• Uncertainty Quantification — 2× in this paper · explained in 8 episodes
• Weather Research and Forecasting — 2× in this paper
• AI Weather Models — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Accountability — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Adam — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Aggregation — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Benchmarking — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Continuous Ranked Probability Scores — 1× in this paper
• Contrastive Learning — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Core — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Decode — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Diffusion Model — 1× in this paper · explained in 8 episodes
• ECMWF Meteorological Archival and Retrieval System — 1× in this paper
• Epistemic Uncertainty — 1× in this paper · explained in 9 episodes
• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — 1× in this paper
• Failure Modes — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Global Telecommunication System — 1× in this paper
• JAXA Global Precipitation Measurement — 1× in this paper
• Probabilistic Forecasting — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes

Sources

• Skillful joint probabilistic weather forecasting from marginals
• Decompositions of the mean continuous ranked probability score
• Rainfall forecasts in daily use over East Africa improved by machine learning
• Leveraging data-driven weather models for improving numerical weather prediction skill through large-scale spectral nudging
• Evaluating Extreme Precipitation Forecasts: A Threshold-Weighted, Spatial Verification Approach for Comparing an AI Weather Prediction Model Against a High-Resolution NWP Model
• Hybrid ensemble forecasting combining physics-based and machine-learning predictions through spectral nudging

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