When Should Forecasting Agents Reason? Behavioral Stress Tests for Reliability Routing

arXiv:2609.28475 · cs.AI, cs.CL · Submitted 2026-07-09 · Read on arXiv

cs.AI, cs.CL

Submitted: 2026-07-09

Updated: 2026-07-09

Code: https://github.com/louiswang524/forcastagent

Terminology

• Calibration — 41× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Ablation — 5× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Adaptation — 5× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Benchmark — 5× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Accuracy — 3× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Aggregation — 3× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Trace — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Agentic Reasoning — 2× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Probabilistic Forecasting — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Agent Harness — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Agentic Search — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Core — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Provenance — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Robustness — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Verification — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Sources

• AIA Forecaster: Technical Report
• ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

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