Global tree forecasters collapse at the hierarchical aggregate: a five-panel failure characterization

arXiv:2609.27912 · cs.LG, econ.EM, stat.AP · Submitted 2026-08-21 · Read on arXiv

cs.LG, econ.EM, stat.AP

Submitted: 2026-08-21

Updated: 2026-08-21

Terminology

• Accuracy — 18× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Ablation — 14× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Benchmark — 5× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Robustness — 4× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Provenance — 3× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Aggregation — 2× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Regularization — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Time Series Forecasting — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Alignment — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Benchmarking — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Calibration — 1× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Clustering — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Core — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Feature Engineering — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Generalization — 1× in this paper · explained in 13 episodes
• Generative AI — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications — 1× in this paper
• Probabilistic Forecasting — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Sparsity — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Trace — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Transformer — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Transformer Models — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Sources

• Delta-Based Target Reformulation for Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Using LSTM and Transformer Models
• Monash Time Series Forecasting Archive
• Do Stationarity Transformations Actually Improve Time Series Forecasts? A Controlled Experimental Evaluation
• Forecasting with Hyper-Trees
• Local vs. Global Models for Hierarchical Forecasting

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