FAST-ML: A Hybrid Physics-Machine Learning Framework for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting

arXiv:2609.25505 · physics.ao-ph, cs.LG · Submitted 2026-09-22 · Read on arXiv

physics.ao-ph, cs.LG

Submitted: 2026-09-22

Updated: 2026-09-22

Code: https://github.com/Shijie-Xiao/FAST-ML

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Core — 22× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Interpretability — 17× in this paper · explained in 15 episodes
• Consistency — 15× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Benchmark — 10× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Eastern Pacific — 9× in this paper
• Ablation — 8× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Accuracy — 8× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Generalization — 7× in this paper · explained in 13 episodes
• Probabilistic Forecasting — 7× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• False Alarm Ratio — 4× in this paper
• Fine-Tuning — 4× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Steering — 4× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Alignment — 3× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Calibration — 3× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Robustness — 3× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Sea Surface Temperature — 3× in this paper
• THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble — 3× in this paper
• Transferability — 3× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• AI Weather Models — 2× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Ablation study — 2× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Computational overhead — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Critical Success Index — 2× in this paper
• Dual-Stream Architecture — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Ensemble Prediction System — 2× in this paper
• Generalizability — 2× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Mean Absolute Error — 2× in this paper
• NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System — 2× in this paper
• Peirce Skill Score — 2× in this paper
• Physical Constraints — 2× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Probability of Detection — 2× in this paper
• Two-stage training — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Adam — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Benchmarking — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Conservation Laws — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Continuous Ranked Probability Score — 1× in this paper
• Degeneracy — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Ensemble Approach — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Failure Modes — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Fast and Accurate Simulation of TCs — 1× in this paper
• Feature Extraction — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Hybrid Approach — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Hybrid Models — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Inverse Problem — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Latent Representation — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Latent Representations — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Loss Function — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Mean Sea Level Pressure — 1× in this paper
• National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center — 1× in this paper
• Non-linear Coupling — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Pseudo-labels — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Root Mean Square Error — 1× in this paper
• Two-Stage Training Strategy — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Uncertainty Quantification — 1× in this paper · explained in 8 episodes
• Verification — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Sources

• Skillful joint probabilistic weather forecasting from marginals
• Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasts from Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction (AIWP) Models
• TCBench: A Benchmark for Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting at the Global Scale
• FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators

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