Do Synthetic Personas Predict Real Audience Response? A Sim-to-Real Study Where a No-Persona Baseline Beats Persona-Based Copy Simulation

arXiv:2609.25010 · cs.AI, cs.CL, cs.CY · Submitted 2026-07-27 · Read on arXiv

cs.AI, cs.CL, cs.CY

Submitted: 2026-07-27

Updated: 2026-07-27

Comments: 12 pages, 3 figures, 7 tables

Code: https://github.com/alemaiorano/sim-to-real-validity

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Accuracy — 11× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Aggregation — 8× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Benchmark — 8× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Robustness — 7× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Grounding — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Large Language Models (LLMs) — 2× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Accountability — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Alignment — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Calibration — 1× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Embeddings — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Fidelity — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Fine-Tuning — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Interpretability — 1× in this paper · explained in 15 episodes
• Provenance — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes

Sources

• LOLA: LLM-Assisted Online Learning Algorithm for Content Experiments

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