TimeLitmus: A Diagnostic Benchmark for Cross-Modal Understanding and Explanation Faithfulness in Event-Conditioned Time-Series Prediction

arXiv:2609.24677 · cs.AI · Submitted 2026-09-21 · Read on arXiv

cs.AI

Submitted: 2026-09-21

Updated: 2026-09-21

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Accuracy — 78× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Benchmark — 63× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Adaptation — 40× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Consistency — 28× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Hard Paired Contrast — 13× in this paper
• Robustness — 10× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Alignment — 5× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Claim-Supported Dependence Rate — 5× in this paper
• Core — 5× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Quantization — 5× in this paper · explained in 12 episodes
• Adam — 4× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Grounding — 3× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Time Series Forecasting — 3× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Trace — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Aggregation — 2× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Large Language Models (LLMs) — 2× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Evaluation Dimensions — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• External Validation — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Fidelity — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• LLM-as-a-Judge — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• LoRA Adapters — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Multimodal Dataset — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Provenance — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Reasoning Traces — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Reinforcement Learning — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Temporal Reasoning — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• alpha — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode

Sources

• TFRBench: A Reasoning Benchmark for Evaluating Forecasting Systems
• XForecast: Evaluating Natural Language Explanations for Time Series Forecasting
• MTBench: A Multimodal Time Series Benchmark for Temporal Reasoning and Question Answering
• DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning
• TimeSeriesExamAgent: Creating Time Series Reasoning Benchmarks at Scale
• Open-FinLLMs: Open Multimodal Large Language Models for Financial Applications
• What If TSF: Reframing Time Series Forecasting as Scenario-Guided Multimodal Forecasting
• Learning the Difference that Makes a Difference with Counterfactually-Augmented Data
• Multi-Modal Forecaster: Jointly Predicting Time Series and Textual Data
• MiniMax Sparse Attention
• Measuring Faithfulness in Chain-of-Thought Reasoning
• Rethinking Multimodal Time-Series Forecasting Evaluation
• BEDTime: A Unified Benchmark for Automatically Describing Time Series
• OpenAI GPT-5 System Card
• LLM-as-a-Judge for Time Series Explanations
• TemporalBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating LLM-Based Agents on Contextual and Event-Informed Time Series Tasks
• Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information
• The Wall Street Neophyte: A Zero-Shot Analysis of ChatGPT Over MultiModal Stock Movement Prediction Challenges
• PIXIU: A Large Language Model, Instruction Data and Evaluation Benchmark for Finance
• DeepSeek-V4: Towards Highly Efficient Million-Token Context Intelligence

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