One Patch, Three Roles: What Is Actually Coupled in Autoregressive Time-Series Forecasting?

arXiv:2609.23686 · cs.LG · Submitted 2026-09-20 · Read on arXiv

cs.LG

Submitted: 2026-09-20

Updated: 2026-09-20

Code: https://github.com/RowanFFF/ATD-Spectrum-Tangent

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Transformer — 26× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Accuracy — 21× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Fidelity — 16× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Time Series Forecasting — 10× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Distillation — 7× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Benchmark — 5× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Foundation Model — 4× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Autoregressive Trajectory Distillation — 3× in this paper
• Foundation Models — 3× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Verification — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Alignment — 2× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Speculative Decoding — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Ablation — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Adaptation — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Aggregation — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Decode — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Decoupling — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Embeddings — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Generative AI — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• In-Context Learning — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• KV cache — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Mixture of Experts — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Provenance — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Regret — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Sparse Attention — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes

Sources

• T-LLM: Teaching Large Language Models to Forecast Time Series via Temporal Distillation
• Moirai 2.0: When Less Is More for Time Series Forecasting
• UniTST: Effectively Modeling Inter-Series and Intra-Series Dependencies for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
• Timer-S1: A Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Model with Serial Scaling
• Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Experts
• Accelerating Time Series Foundation Models with Speculative Decoding
• TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis
• Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?
• Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting

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