The Corroboration Illusion: When More News Makes LLM Forecasts Less True

arXiv:2609.22246 · cs.CL, cs.AI · Submitted 2026-09-05 · Read on arXiv

cs.CL, cs.AI

Submitted: 2026-09-05

Updated: 2026-09-05

Comments: Key words: LLM forecasting, retrieval-augmented generation, data poisoning, misinformation, calibration

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Large Language Models (LLMs) — 1× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Perplexity — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• RAG — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes

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