A Framework to Quantify the Probability of Future Cyber Loss Events

arXiv:2609.21717 · cs.CR, stat.AP · Submitted 2026-09-18 · Read on arXiv

cs.CR, stat.AP

Submitted: 2026-09-18

Updated: 2026-10-02

Comments: Preprint. Accepted for publication in the Proceedings of CYBER 2026: The Eleventh International Conference on Cyber-Technologies and Cyber-Systems

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Aggregation — 21× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Calibration — 20× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Copula — 14× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Loss Event Frequency — 6× in this paper
• Cyber Loss Event — 5× in this paper
• AUC — 4× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Microsoft Defender for Endpoint — 4× in this paper
• Accuracy — 2× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Core — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Federated Learning — 2× in this paper · explained in 15 episodes
• Loss Event Frequency Security Analyser — 2× in this paper
• Clustering — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Distribution Shift — 1× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Expected Calibration Errors — 1× in this paper
• Expected Shortfall — 1× in this paper
• Factor Analysis of Information Risk — 1× in this paper
• Generalization — 1× in this paper · explained in 13 episodes
• Information Technology — 1× in this paper

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