From Manual Construction to AI-Driven Scenario Emergence: Rethinking Catastrophe Risk Modeling

arXiv:2609.16493 · cs.AI, cs.LG · Submitted 2026-09-15 · Read on arXiv

cs.AI, cs.LG

Submitted: 2026-09-15

Updated: 2026-09-15

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Calibration — 19× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Core — 16× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Consistency — 6× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Benchmarking — 4× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Stochastic Event Sets — 3× in this paper
• Technology Readiness Level — 3× in this paper
• Verification — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Diffusion Model — 2× in this paper · explained in 8 episodes
• Fidelity — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Latent Diffusion Model — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Accuracy — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Adaptability — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Alignment — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Benchmark — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Decoupling — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Diffusion Models — 1× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Digital Twin — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Extreme Value Theory — 1× in this paper
• Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Generative Model — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Generative Models — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Large Language Models (LLMs) — 1× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Latent Diffusion Models — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Physical Constraints — 1× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Robustness — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Transformer — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Sources

• FourCastNeXt: Optimizing FourCastNet Training for Limited Compute
• Emerging AI-based weather prediction models as downscaling tools
• GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting
• FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators
• Forecasting the Future with Future Technologies: Advancements in Large Meteorological Models

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