Introspective Uncertainty Estimation for LLM-Based Code Generation

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used for code generation but can produce fluent yet functionally incorrect outputs, which limits trust in their usage for practical software engineering workflows. This thesis investigates whether Introspective Uncertainty Estimation (IUE), based on internal hidden-state representations of LLMs, can reliably indicate correctness at the response and line levels for code generation tasks. The objective is to determine the extent to which hidden states encode information about functional code correctness and how this can be leveraged for practical risk assessment and fault localization. Methodologically, this thesis combines response-level evaluation on LiveCodeBench (LCB) and BigCodeBench (BCB) with an augmentation pipeline that derives token- and line-level labels from incorrect programs. In this setup, it compares static and dynamic response-level features, evaluates generalization across tasks, programming domains, and token positions, and studies line-level fault localization. The results show that hidden states contain a strong response-level correctness signal. Static single-token probes perform best, while more elaborate dynamic strategies yield no consistent gains. While generalization across tasks, domains, and token positions is feasible, setting-dependent degradation largely remains for real-world software projects. At a fine granularity, line-level prediction is substantially harder than response-level estimation. However, in a conditional localization setup with known-incorrect programs, Top-K point-of-failure ranking remains effective. Overall, the findings suggest that hidden states are a robust and informative resource for estimating functional code correctness, supporting a two-stage workflow that combines response-level risk screening with targeted line-level prioritization.