The Illusion of Balanced Multimodal Sentiment Analysis: Beyond the Limits of Optimization-Based Methods

Multimodal Sentiment Analysis (MSA) remains constrained by modality imbalance, yet the field continues to rely on optimization-based balancing methods that promise more than they deliver. We provide three contributions: 1) a unified evaluation framework testing gradient and loss-based balancing strategies under controlled settings; 2) a theoretical diagnosis explaining why these methods fail, as they conflate fitting speed with discriminative contribution; and 3) a research agenda toward held-out discriminative modality valuation. Experiments on CMU-MOSI and CMU-MOSEI reveal three shortcomings: no strategy reliably outperforms Late Concatenation; performance is sensitive to hyperparameters; and even ratio calibration fails to yield consistent gains. The core issue is fundamental: loss is not utility, and gradients are not importance. Modality imbalance remains unresolved, motivating utility estimation from held-out performance.