A Statistical Approach to Estimating Sample Size of Machine Learning Models

arXiv:2609.09547 · cs.LG, cs.AI · Submitted 2026-09-09 · Read on arXiv

cs.LG, cs.AI

Submitted: 2026-09-09

Updated: 2026-09-09

License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The gist: Sample size determination for machine learning (ML) prediction models is challenging because conventional power analysis typically requires the predictor-outcome relationship and effect structure to

Abstract

Sample size determination for machine learning (ML) prediction models is challenging because conventional power analysis typically requires the predictor-outcome relationship and effect structure to be specified a priori. Nonlinear ML models learn complex prediction surfaces that do not admit straightforward analytical power calculations. We propose a framework that approximates nonlinear ML models with localized linear representations and estimates sample size requirements by evaluating statistical power across these local regions.

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