Beyond Homoscedasticity: Decoupled Uncertainty Optimization for Deep Imbalanced Regression

Deep Imbalanced Regression (DIR) is pervasive in continuous prediction tasks across diverse modalities, such as age estimation, depth prediction, and protein mutation activity prediction, where label-scarce tail samples often carry higher practical value. However, most existing methods still learn deterministic point mappings under mean squared error or its simple variants, implicitly assuming a uniform uncertainty level across all samples and thereby overlooking the instance-wise heteroscedasticity that is widespread in long-tailed data. We further point out that even heteroscedastic negative log-likelihood suffers from a gradient coupling issue, which, under DIR scenarios, weakens the learning signal of hard tail samples and leads to optimization inertia as well as tail underfitting. To address this, we propose DUO, an uncertainty-aware long-tailed regression framework. Specifically, the proposed method models the regression target as a conditional Gaussian distribution to explicitly characterize instance-level predictive uncertainty, and transforms uncertainty into a dynamic enhancement signal for tail samples through decoupled mean-variance optimization. Furthermore, we design a distribution-guided contrastive learning mechanism that adaptively constructs positive and negative pairs based on the overlap between sample distributions, thereby alleviating feature looseness and cross-label semantic entanglement. Across visual and biological DIR benchmarks, DUO achieves the best few-shot bMAE and GM on IMDB-WIKI-DIR, AgeDB-DIR, and AAV2-DIR while remaining competitive on few-shot MAE.