DualStake: Dual-Path Confidence Calibration in Deep Research Agents

arXiv:2609.00935 · cs.CL, cs.AI, cs.LG · Submitted 2026-09-01 · Read on arXiv

cs.CL, cs.AI, cs.LG

Submitted: 2026-09-01

Updated: 2026-09-01

Code: https://github.com/FloXXXt/DualStake

Terminology

• AUC — 84× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Calibration — 84× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Accuracy — 33× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• GRPO — 27× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Benchmark — 21× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Ablation — 11× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Reinforcement Learning — 8× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Activation Patching — 4× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Brier Score — 4× in this paper
• Exact Match — 3× in this paper
• Abstention — 2× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Aggregation — 2× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Expected Calibration Error — 2× in this paper
• Linear Probing — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• RAG — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Robustness — 2× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Trace — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Ablation study — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Adaptation — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Domain Adaptation — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Embeddings — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Generalization — 1× in this paper · explained in 13 episodes
• Group Relative Policy Optimization — 1× in this paper
• Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Instruction Tuning — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Linear probe — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Reasoning Traces — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes

Sources

• Beyond Binary Rewards: Training LMs to Reason About Their Uncertainty
• Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know
• How do LLMs Compute Verbal Confidence
• NOVA: NOise-aware Verbal Confidence CAlibration for Robust Large Language Models in RAG Systems
• DeepResearch-Slice: Bridging the Retrieval-Utilization Gap via Explicit Text Slicing
• WebGPT: Browser-assisted question-answering with human feedback
• ZeroSearch: Incentivize the Search Capability of LLMs without Searching
• Text Embeddings by Weakly-Supervised Contrastive Pre-training
• A Comprehensive Survey on Trustworthiness in Reasoning with Large Language Models
• Measuring short-form factuality in large language models
• BrowseComp: A Simple Yet Challenging Benchmark for Browsing Agents
• How to Train Your Deep Research Agent? Prompt, Reward, and Policy Optimization in Search-R1
• DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models
• The Confidence Dichotomy: Analyzing and Mitigating Miscalibration in Tool-Use Agents
• R1-Searcher: Incentivizing the Search Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning
• Agentic Confidence Calibration
• Qwen3 Technical Report

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