Can LLMs Take the Pulse of the Economy? A Real-Time Evaluation of LLM Nowcasts on Macroeconomic Indicators

arXiv:2608.30110 · cs.CL, cs.AI · Submitted 2026-08-31 · Read on arXiv

cs.CL, cs.AI

Submitted: 2026-08-31

Updated: 2026-08-31

Code: https://github.com/LiveMacroEval/LiveMacroEval

Project page: https://livemacroeval.github.io

Terminology

• Benchmark — 35× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Core — 12× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Alignment — 11× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Accuracy — 9× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Calibration — 7× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Verifier — 6× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Aggregation — 4× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Robustness — 4× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Bureau of Labor Statistics — 2× in this paper
• Trace — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Bureau of Economic Analysis — 1× in this paper
• Clustering — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Commentary — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Grounding — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Interpretability — 1× in this paper · explained in 15 episodes
• Regularization — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Time Series Forecasting — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Verification — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Sources

• Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Language Models
• Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models
• Can ChatGPT Forecast Stock Price Movements? Return Predictability and Large Language Models
• Prompting for Policy: Forecasting Macroeconomic Scenarios with Synthetic LLM Personas
• Qwen3 Technical Report

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