Bridging short- and medium-range weather forecasting with machine learning

arXiv:2608.26822 · physics.ao-ph, cs.LG · Submitted 2026-08-27 · Read on arXiv

physics.ao-ph, cs.LG

Submitted: 2026-08-27

Updated: 2026-08-27

Code: https://github.com/NOAA-PSL/nested-eagle

Terminology

• Transformer — 18× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Loss Function — 15× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Latent Space — 7× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — 6× in this paper
• Ablation — 3× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Calibration — 3× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Fine-Tuning — 3× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Foundation Model — 3× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Global Forecast System — 3× in this paper
• Physical Sciences Laboratory — 3× in this paper
• Analysis of Record for Calibration — 2× in this paper
• Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences — 2× in this paper
• Core — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Earth Prediction Innovation Center — 2× in this paper
• Global Systems Laboratory — 2× in this paper
• Limited Area Model — 2× in this paper
• Mean Absolute Error — 2× in this paper
• NOAA NASA Joint Archive — 2× in this paper
• Office of Water Prediction — 2× in this paper
• Root-Mean-Squared Error — 2× in this paper
• Transformer Architecture — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Verification — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Ablation study — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Adam — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Amazon Web Services — 1× in this paper
• Cooperation — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Developments in Machine Learning Weather Prediction — 1× in this paper
• Distillation — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — 1× in this paper
• Global Data Assimilation System — 1× in this paper
• Global Forecast System and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh — 1× in this paper
• Integrated Forecast System — 1× in this paper
• National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center — 1× in this paper
• Regularization — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Twelfth International Conference on Learning Representations — 1× in this paper

Sources

• Building Machine Learning Limited Area Models: Kilometer-Scale Weather Forecasting in Realistic Settings
• Skillful joint probabilistic weather forecasting from marginals
• FourCastNet 3: A geometric approach to probabilistic machine-learning weather forecasting at scale
• Climate in a Bottle: Towards a Generative Foundation Model for the Kilometer-Scale Global Atmosphere
• HealDA: Highlighting the importance of initial errors in end-to-end AI weather forecasts
• HourGlass: A probabilistic data-driven temporal downscaler for global and regional weather forecasting
• AIFS -- ECMWF's data-driven forecasting system
• Pointwise is Pointless? A Multimodal Ablation Study for Precipitation Nowcasting with Graph Neural Networks
• High-Resolution Probabilistic Data-Driven Weather Modeling with a Stretched-Grid
• Graph-based Neural Weather Prediction for Limited Area Modeling
• Learning Accurate Storm-Scale Evolution from Observations
• Learning to Advect: A Neural Semi-Lagrangian Architecture for Weather Forecasting
• AIFS-DOP: End-to-End Medium-Range Weather Prediction from Observations Alone with Machine Learning
• XiChen: A global weather observation-to-forecast machine learning system via four-dimensional variational gradient-guided flexible assimilation
• Skillful high-resolution weather forecasting independent of physical models

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