(Mis)Understanding Benign Overfitting in Equity Return Prediction

arXiv:2608.23761 · stat.ML, cs.LG, stat.AP, stat.ME · Submitted 2026-08-24 · Read on arXiv

stat.ML, cs.LG, stat.AP, stat.ME

Submitted: 2026-08-24

Updated: 2026-08-24

Code: https://github.com/Jiawei98/BenignOverfitting

Terminology

• Benchmark — 46× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Regularization — 25× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• alpha — 7× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Consistency — 6× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Alignment — 2× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Distillation — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Robustness — 2× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Generalization — 1× in this paper · explained in 13 episodes
• Trace — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Related papers

• Behavior of prediction performance metrics with rare events
• Optimal Estimation of Generic Dynamics by Path-Dependent Neural Jump ODEs
• A Posterior-Dynamics Framework for Imaging Inverse Problems with Pretrained Diffusion Priors
• One Permutation Is All You Need: Fast, Deterministic Feature Importance and Model Stress-Testing
• Online Conformal Prediction for Non-Exchangeable Panel Data
• Deep Time-Series Forecasting in 10 Years: A Survey