When the HL-LHC is blind, LISA is deaf (but not vice versa): 2HDM collider-cosmology synergies

Extensions of the Standard Model scalar sector can render the electroweak phase transition first-order and thereby provide the departure from thermal equilibrium required for electroweak baryogenesis, while at the same time sourcing a stochastic gravitational wave (GW) background in the milli-Hertz range. In this work, we investigate electroweak phase transitions in the CP-conserving type-I two-Higgs-doublet model (2HDM), focusing on the interplay between collider constraints at the HL-LHC and the projected sensitivity of LISA. We compute the expected GW background due to strong first-order electroweak phase transitions and perform extensive Monte Carlo scans over the collider-viable model parameter space. We find that GW signals within reach of LISA arise almost exclusively in regions of parameter space that necessarily predict observable deviations at the HL-LHC, in particular through the H to ZZ decay channel of the heavy CP-even and neutral Higgs state with m H 180--250, GeV. Our results highlight the decisive complementarity between collider and GW probes and show that the largest parts of the 2HDM parameter space relevant for phase transition signals at LISA can already be tested by HL-LHC. A possible future discovery of 2HDM states at the HL-LHC, however, would not allow conclusive statements about LISA being able to find a GW background due to the amount of parameter tuning required for an observable GW signal. In order to evaluate possible caveats of this statement we study the theoretical uncertainties related to the GW predictions in a two-fold approach using both state-of-the-art tools, BSMPT and TransitionListener, and also allow for model realizations in which the electroweak symmetry is not restored in the high-temperature limit, which are the ones combining the loudest GW signals with the weakest collider coverage.