An Identifiability Audit of One-Parameter Structural Corrections to the Radial Acceleration Relation in SPARC
Lukas A. Sosna
astro-ph.GA
Submitted: 2026-08-09
Updated: 2026-08-11
Comments: 33 pages, 9 figures, 1 table. Scripts, frozen pipeline outputs, and verification ledgers: concept DOI 10.5281/zenodo.19503119 (this analysis corresponds to version v20, doi:10.5281/zenodo.21856110)
License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
The gist: We ask whether any one-parameter structural correction to the radial acceleration relation (RAR) can be uniquely recovered from SPARC rotation curves, and answer with an identifiability audit: each
Terminology
Abstract
We ask whether any one-parameter structural correction to the radial acceleration relation (RAR) can be uniquely recovered from SPARC rotation curves, and answer with an identifiability audit: each candidate is benchmarked against per-galaxy nuisance freedom, with predictive scoring against mass-only and data-quality baselines. In the full sample (N = 126) the answer is no: a hybrid compactness term improves the fit, but zero-point freedom absorbs the gain, and in cross-validation the model fails to out-predict a mass-only baseline and loses to a quality-flag baseline. One regime retains structural information: in gas-dominated, low-acceleration disks -- where MOND's strict locality and CDM feedback models diverge most sharply -- the RAR residual correlates with compactness (r=0.46, p=1.3 times10-4), remains significant under hierarchical partial pooling (beta=0.23, p=1.7 times10-5; N = 63), and survives canonical joint control for quality, sampling, mass, inclination error, and first-order pressure support (r=0.30, p=0.02). All significant results pass a Benjamini-Hochberg correction over the declared 27-test family. Three limits temper that survival: it is not significant under rank-based control over the widest proxy set; it resides in faint dwarfs independent surveys do not reach; and after mass control it is shared across the mass-size manifold. Pressure support brackets the interpretation -- isotropic drift correction absorbs a quarter of the amplitude, while a Jeans treatment overcorrects resolved cases -- leaving the physical origin undetermined. The audit's product is the extraction limit: claimed corrections must clear the 0.106 dex per-galaxy nuisance floor, a mass-only baseline, and data-quality stratification.
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