KReF: Training-Free Retrieval for Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting and Predictive Uncertainty

arXiv:2608.06748 · cs.LG, cs.AI · Submitted 2026-08-07 · Read on arXiv

Yang Zhang, Rui Su

cs.LG, cs.AI

Submitted: 2026-08-07

Updated: 2026-08-10

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Calibration — 18× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Embeddings — 16× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Benchmark — 10× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Conformal Prediction — 8× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Time Series Forecasting — 8× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Transformer — 8× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Aggregation — 6× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Distribution Shift — 6× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Hyperparameters — 6× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Ablation — 5× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Random Fourier Features — 4× in this paper
• Adaptation — 3× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Accuracy — 2× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Alignment — 2× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Diffusion Model — 2× in this paper · explained in 8 episodes
• Diffusion Models — 2× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Loss Function — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Probabilistic Forecasting — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Ablation study — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Clustering — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Consistency — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Cosine Similarity — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Exchangeability — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Generalization — 1× in this paper · explained in 13 episodes
• Latent Space — 1× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Optimal Transport — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Regularization — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Robustness — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Transferability — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• alpha — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode

Sources

• Online Localized Conformal Prediction

Related papers

• Polynomial-Augmented Neural Networks (PANNs) with Weak Orthogonality Constraints for Enhanced Function and PDE Approximation
• AIRL-S: Unifying Reinforcement Learning and Search-Based Test-Time Scaling via Adversarial Inverse Reinforcement Learning
• Transformers as Bayesian In-Context Experimenters: Smoothness-Adaptive Efficient ATE Estimation
• Convergence issues in Relational Concept Analysis based on AOC-posets
• Beliefs Beyond Posteriors: Local-Consistency Optimisation for Bayesian Neural Networks
• Understanding Diffusion Models via Ratio-Based Function Approximation with SignReLU Networks