A low value of H 0 in tension with the distance ladder from Megamasers using peculiar velocity reconstruction

Megamaser distances can be measured without using the traditional distance ladder. As such, they provide an independent probe of the local expansion rate, quantified by the Hubble constant H 0. We re-analyze megamaser distance and redshift data to obtain a new, more accurate, estimate of H 0. The main improvement in our analysis is the use of a new velocity field reconstruction to correct redshifts for peculiar velocities. This reconstruction utilizes constrained cosmological simulations in addition to redshift survey data to more accurately capture both coherent flows as well as nonGaussian individual galaxy motions. We argue that previous estimates of H 0 from megamaser data were susceptible to bias due to peculiar velocities. By correcting for peculiar motions using this new reconstruction we obtain a value of H 0 that is consistent with the value from the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and in tension with the value from the local distance ladder at greater than a 2 sigma level, whereas previous results showed consistency with the distance ladder and tension with the CMB at greater than 2 sigma. Our results suggest that the Hubble tension is due to some heretofore undetermined systematic in the distance ladder rather than new physics.