Cosmology in the Einstein Telescope era: comparing traditional and simulation-based methods for population inference

arXiv:2608.04005 · astro-ph.CO, astro-ph.IM, gr-qc · Submitted 2026-08-04 · Read on arXiv

Giovanni Antinozzi, Guillermo Franco Abellán, Davide Sciotti, Matteo Martinelli

astro-ph.CO, astro-ph.IM, gr-qc

Submitted: 2026-08-04

Comments: 28 pages, 8 figures. Links to codes: Sireeni: https://github.com/GFAbellan/Sireeni, darksirens_hbi: https://gitlab.com/gantinoz/darksirens_hbi

Code: https://github.com/GFAbellan/Sireeni

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Gravitational Wave — 25× in this paper
• Simulation-based Inference — 14× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Einstein Telescope — 12× in this paper
• Empirical Coverage — 9× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Marginal Neural Ratio Estimation — 8× in this paper
• Bayesian Inference — 7× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Hierarchical Bayesian Inference — 6× in this paper
• Accuracy — 4× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Degeneracy — 3× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Neural Posterior Estimation — 3× in this paper
• Star Formation Rate — 3× in this paper
• Abundance — 2× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Benchmark — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Benchmarking — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Clustering — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Consistency — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Core — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Transformer — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Active Learning — 1× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Higher-order statistics — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Loss Function — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Monte Carlo Markov Chain — 1× in this paper
• Neural posterior estimation (NPE) — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Simulation Based Inference — 1× in this paper
• Star Formation Rate (SFR) — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Trace — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Weak Lensing — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• alpha — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode

Sources

• Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Black Hole Merger
• GWTC-3: Compact Binary Coalescences Observed by LIGO and Virgo During the Second Part of the Third Observing Run
• The population of merging compact binaries inferred using gravitational waves through GWTC-3
• GWTC-2: Compact Binary Coalescences Observed by LIGO and Virgo During the First Half of the Third Observing Run
• Properties and astrophysical implications of the 150 Msun binary black hole merger GW190521
• GW250114: testing Hawking's area law and the Kerr nature of black holes
• GW190412: Observation of a Binary-Black-Hole Coalescence with Asymmetric Masses
• GW241011 and GW241110: Exploring Binary Formation and Fundamental Physics with Asymmetric, High-Spin Black Hole Coalescence
• Properties of the Binary Black Hole Merger GW150914
• GW151226: Observation of Gravitational Waves from a 22-Solar-Mass Binary Black Hole Coalescence
• GW170104: Observation of a 50-Solar-Mass Binary Black Hole Coalescence at Redshift 0.2
• Open Data from LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA through the Second Part of the Fourth Observing Run
• GWTC-5.0: Constraints on the Cosmic Expansion Rate and Modified Gravitational-wave Propagation
• GWTC-5.0: Population Properties of Merging Compact Binaries
• GWTC-5.0: An Introduction to Version 5.0 of the Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog
• GWTC-5.0: Observations from the Second Part of the Fourth LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Observing Run and Updates to the Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog
• GW170814: A Three-Detector Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Black Hole Coalescence
• GW170817: Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Neutron Star Inspiral
• GW170608: Observation of a 19-solar-mass Binary Black Hole Coalescence
• GW190425: Observation of a Compact Binary Coalescence with Total Mass $\sim 3.4 M_{\odot}$

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