Physical Characterization of Moon Impactor 2025-010D

Renewed interest in lunar exploration is creating a growing population of poorly tracked cislunar objects, some of which will ultimately impact the Moon 1. The ultimate fate of rocket upper stages or failed mission payloads is often unknown and unplanned. Determining the origin and physical properties of such objects will become increasingly important as sustained lunar exploration places humans and infrastructure on the surface 2;3;4;5. Here we present a ground-based physical and dynamical characterization of 2025-010D, a Falcon 9 upper stage predicted to impact the lunar farside on 2026 August 05. Backward propagation of its orbit independently links the object to the ``Ghost Riders in the Sky'' launch, while visible and near-infrared spectroscopy distinguishes it from natural objects and reveals absorption bands consistent with spacecraft thermal control materials. Photometric lightcurves confirm its elongated shape and reveal an unexpected change of more than 8 s in its about 7 min rotation period during observations. We predict an impact between Bell and Einstein craters at about 2.4 km s-1, producing a crater about 40 m in diameter. Since its provenance is independently known, 2025-010D provides a benchmark for identifying and characterizing future cislunar objects of uncertain origin.