ConfidenceBench: Evaluating Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models

arXiv:2607.20526 · cs.AI, cs.LG, stat.ML · Submitted 2026-07-10 · Read on arXiv

Matthew ffrench-Constant, Daniel Yang, Xinmeng Huang, Sanyam Kapoor

cs.AI, cs.LG, stat.ML

Submitted: 2026-07-10

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Calibration — 56× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Accuracy — 45× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Benchmark — 25× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Abstention — 5× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Uncertainty Quantification — 5× in this paper · explained in 8 episodes
• Benchmarking — 3× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Large Language Models (LLMs) — 3× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Failure Modes — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Reinforcement Learning — 2× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Aggregation — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Calibration Failure — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Consistency — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Deep Reinforcement Learning — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Epistemic Uncertainty — 1× in this paper · explained in 10 episodes
• Fine-Tuning — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Hallucination — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Human-in-the-Loop — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Self-consistency — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Verification — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Sources

• Smooth ECE: Principled Reliability Diagrams via Kernel Smoothing
• Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding
• Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know
• AbstentionBench: Reasoning LLMs Fail on Unanswerable Questions
• Torch-Uncertainty: A Deep Learning Framework for Uncertainty Quantification
• Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words
• Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs
• On Verbalized Confidence Scores for LLMs

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