Triple radio flares from tidal disruption events: jet-wind collisions and the discovery of a third radio flare from AT2020vwl

Radio flares from tidal disruption events (TDEs) are observed on two distinct timescales: prompt (around the time of optical peak) and delayed (hundreds to thousands of days after optical peak). A recent framework put forward to explain this diversity suggests that super-Eddington winds produce prompt flares while jets launched during a disk state transition at low accretion rates produce delayed flares. A unique observational prediction of this framework is that individual sources showing both types of flares may be expected to show a third flare. This third flare will occur when the (faster) jet catches up with the (slower) wind. The observational appearance of the third flare depends on the system parameters. As the two shock fronts collide the (brighter) jet encounters a change in density, modifying its synchrotron-self-absorption frequency and observed flux. Here we discuss the observational appearance of such a scenario, and then show, in new long-term monitoring radio observations of the TDE AT2020vwl, the discovery of a third radio flare. This flare is coincident with the time at which forward modeling of the first two flares in a wind-jet framework predicts a collision between the two shock fronts. We make predictions for the long-term radio evolution of two other TDEs showing double radio flares: ASASSN-15oi (which may show a weak flare or flattening of the lightcurve) and AT2024tvd (which is predicted to imminently undergo a third flare).