Neural Posterior Estimation for Inferring Weak Lensing Shear

arXiv:2607.09867 · astro-ph.IM, astro-ph.CO, cs.CV, stat.AP · Submitted 2026-07-10 · Read on arXiv

Tim White, Dingrui Tao, Camille Avestruz, Jeffrey Regier, the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

astro-ph.IM, astro-ph.CO, cs.CV, stat.AP

Submitted: 2026-07-10

Comments: 17 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables

Code: https://github.com/mr-superonion/AnaCal

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Calibration — 15× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Weak Lensing — 11× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Empirical Coverage — 9× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Accuracy — 5× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Gravitational Lensing — 5× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Neural posterior estimation (NPE) — 5× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Benchmark — 4× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Fidelity — 4× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Simulation-based Inference — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Core — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Distribution Shift — 2× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Generative Model — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Robustness — 2× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Selection Bias — 2× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Alignment — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Bayesian Fourier Domain — 1× in this paper
• Bayesian Framework — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Generative Models — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Systematic Bias — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Uncertainty Quantification — 1× in this paper · explained in 8 episodes

Sources

• DESC DC2 Data Release Note
• The Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope: 100 Hubbles for the 2020s
• Forward Amortized Inference for Likelihood-Free Variational Marginalization
• The little coadd that could: Estimating shear from coadded images
• Investigating the Impact of Model Misspecification in Neural Simulation-based Inference
• CoLT: The conditional localization test for assessing the accuracy of neural posterior estimates
• WFIRST: The Essential Cosmology Space Observatory for the Coming Decade
• The Statistical Accuracy of Neural Posterior and Likelihood Estimation
• Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition
• A Trust Crisis In Simulation-Based Inference? Your Posterior Approximations Can Be Unfaithful
• Simulation-based Bayesian inference under model misspecification
• Euclid Definition Study Report
• The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Science Requirements Document
• Differentiable Forward Modeling for Efficient and Accurate Shear Inference
• Metadetection Weak Lensing for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory
• Wide-Field InfrarRed Survey Telescope-Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets WFIRST-AFTA 2015 Report
• Validating Bayesian Inference Algorithms with Simulation-Based Calibration
• Group Normalization

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