One with HI: Modelling HI Intensity Mapping one-point statistics including systematics

Neutral hydrogen (HI) traces the dark matter distribution of the Universe. Upcoming surveys such as the Square Kilometre Array Observatory (SKAO) will trace neutral hydrogen up to z < 6 using several detection techniques including Intensity Mapping, which offers a unique window to explore the post-reionization Universe. Beyond two-point statistics promise to extract additional non-Gaussian information but require an accurate modelling of observational systematics such as foregrounds and the telescope beam. This work develops a theoretical model for the HI one-point probability density function (PDF) in spherical cells based on large-deviation statistics and spherical collapse for dark matter along with a nonlinear tracer bias and stochasticity parameterisation. It incorporates foreground removal and telescope beam effects that are validated against high-resolution simulations. We show that, despite these observational systematics, the HI PDF is able to capture additional non-Gaussian information from HI intensity maps compared to the power spectrum and can thus tighten constraints on cosmological parameters, breaking the degeneracy between the linear bias and the clustering amplitude.