When do prophets profit in prediction markets?

arXiv:2607.06166 · cs.AI, cs.CE, cs.GT · Submitted 2026-07-07 · Read on arXiv

cs.AI, cs.CE, cs.GT

Submitted: 2026-07-07

Updated: 2026-09-23

Terminology

• Accuracy — 55× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Consistency — 8× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Benchmark — 4× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Calibration — 4× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Aggregation — 3× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Abstraction — 2× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Generalization — 2× in this paper · explained in 13 episodes
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve — 2× in this paper
• Adaptability — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Generative AI — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Grounding — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Regret — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Robustness — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Verification — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

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