A critical look at low-scale cosmological phase transitions in the PTA era

Motivated by the recent evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background reported by pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations, we perform a precision study of low-scale phase transitions in a dark Abelian Higgs sector, a minimal gauge theory of spontaneous symmetry breaking relevant for cosmological phase transitions. Using dimensionally reduced high-temperature effective field theory, we quantify the impact of thermal resummation, higher-order matching corrections, and higher-dimensional operators on the phase-transition thermodynamics and the resulting GW signal. We find that the parameter region favored by current PTA observations lies close to the boundary of validity of the effective field theory, where higher-dimensional operators become increasingly important. Even within this controlled region, the predicted signal remains disfavored by the PTA data, despite the substantial shifts induced by higher-order thermal corrections. We further delineate parameter regions where the dark and visible sectors are thermally and hydrodynamically coupled or decoupled, and revisit the dark matter phenomenology, identifying asymmetric freeze-out as naturally compatible with both the observed relic abundance and the gauge couplings favored by strong phase transitions. Our results underscore the importance of systematically controlled finite-temperature calculations for reliable GW predictions from low-scale cosmological phase transitions.