The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Impacts of Customized Chromatic Noise Models on Gravitational Wave Analyses

arXiv:2606.28554 · astro-ph.CO, astro-ph.HE · Submitted 2026-06-26 · Read on arXiv

Nikita Agarwal, Gabriella Agazie, Alessandra Amosso, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Anjana Ashok, Jeremy G. Baier, Paul T. Baker, Bence Becsy, Laura Blecha, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Rand Burnette, Robin Case, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Yu-Ting Chang, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Heling Deng, Lankeswar Dey, Timothy Dolch, Graham M. Doskoch, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, William Fiore, Emmanuel Fonseca, Gabriel E. Freedman, Emiko C. Gardiner, Nate Garver-Daniels, Peter A. Gentile, Kyle A. Gersbach, Joseph Glaser, Deborah C. Good, Kayhan Gultekin, Aiden Gundersen, C. J. Harris, Doa Hashemi Asl, Jeffrey S. Hazboun, Ross J. Jennings, Aaron D. Johnson, Megan L. Jones, David L. Kaplan, Anala K. Sreekumar, Luke Zoltan Kelley, Matthew Kerr, Joey S. Key, Nima Laal, Michael T. Lam, William G. Lamb, Bjorn Larsen, T. Joseph W. Lazio, Natalia Lewandowska, Tingting Liu, Duncan R. Lorimer, Jing Luo, Ryan S. Lynch, Chung-Pei Ma, Dustin R. Madison, Ashley Martsen, Cayenne Matt, Alexander McEwen, James W. McKee, Maura A. McLaughlin, Natasha McMann, Bradley W. Meyers, Patrick M. Meyers, Matthew T. Miles, Chiara M. F. Mingarelli, Andrea Mitridate, Cherry Ng, David J. Nice, Shania Nichols, Stella K. Ocker, Daniel J. Oliver, Ken D. Olum, Timothy T. Pennucci, Benetge B. P. Perera, Polina Petrov, Nihan S. Pol, Henri A. Radovan, Scott M. Ransom, Paul S. Ray, Joseph D. Romano, Jessie C. Runnoe, Alexander Saffer, Shashwat C. Sardesai, Ann Schmiedekamp, Carl Schmiedekamp, Kai Schmitz, Levi Schult, Brent J. Shapiro-Albert, Xavier Siemens, Joseph Simon, Sophia V. Sosa Fiscella, Ingrid H. Stairs, Daniel R. Stinebring, Kevin Stovall, Robin Strahler, Abhimanyu Susobhanan, Joseph K. Swiggum, Jacob Taylor, Stephen R. Taylor, Mercedes S. Thompson, Jacob E. Turner, Michele Vallisneri, Rutger van Haasteren, Joris P. W. Verbiest, Sarah J. Vigeland, Haley M. Wahl, Kalista Wayt, Kevin P. Wilson, Caitlin A. Witt, David Wright, Olivia Young

astro-ph.CO, astro-ph.HE

Submitted: 2026-06-26

Comments: 28 pages, 17 figures, Submitted to Astrophysical Journal Letters. For questions or comments, please email jeremy.baier@nanograv.org or bjorn.larsen@nanograv.org

Code: https://github.com/nanograv/enterprise

License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The gist: We report updated nHz gravitational wave (GW) significance, characterization, and interpretations using the customized chromatic-noise models (CNMs) developed in Larsen, Baier et al.

Terminology

Abstract

We report updated nHz gravitational wave (GW) significance, characterization, and interpretations using the customized chromatic-noise models (CNMs) developed in Larsen, Baier et al. (2026). for the NANOGrav 15-year data set. We find increased evidence for the Hellings-Downs (HD) correlation signature of the stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB), with a Bayes factor of 1571 plus or minus14 for HD-correlations over a common uncorrelated red-noise process using a power-law model with 14 Fourier modes. We find this about8 times increase in Bayes factor from Agazie et al. (2023a) is a result of improved noise mitigation. Assuming an analytic null distribution for the frequentist interpulsar correlation statistic, this corresponds to a slightly more significant measurement from 3.16 sigma to 3.32 sigma against the no-correlation scenario. Spectral inference with CNMs brings the power-law GWB amplitude down to A GWB = 2.1+0.6-0.5 times10-15 at fixed gamma GWB = 13/3. In a varied- gamma analysis, the spectral index increases to gamma GWB=3.5+0.7-0.6. We report updates on an all-sky continuous gravitational wave (CW) search as well as select targeted searches and calculate a 3.2 times larger detection volume for the NANOGrav detector. With CNMs, we find reduced evidence for a non-Einsteinian, scalar-transverse mode of gravity. Finally, we reinterpret the GWB first with the assumption of an astrophysical background sourced by SMBHBs and then assuming the more exotic origins of cosmic inflation, a first-order cosmological phase transition, and stable cosmic strings. Under both the SMBHB hypothesis and the cosmological hypotheses, we see only marginal shifts in model parameter posteriors which are consistent with the slightly quieter and steeper power-law GWB spectrum.

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