A hierarchical Bayesian framework for cosmology using Type 1 AGN variability

arXiv:2606.28501 · astro-ph.CO, astro-ph.GA · Submitted 2026-06-26 · Read on arXiv

Júlia Laguna-Miralles, Vasily Belokurov, Miles Cranmer

astro-ph.CO, astro-ph.GA

Submitted: 2026-06-26

Comments: 42 pages, 6 figures, 4 tables

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• AGN — 86× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Calibration — 44× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Bayesian Framework — 7× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Degeneracy — 6× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Anti-correlation — 5× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Adam — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Aperture — 2× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Accuracy — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Benchmark — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Core — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Cosmic Microwave Background — 1× in this paper
• Generative Model — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Hubble Tension — 1× in this paper · explained in 9 episodes
• Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Process — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Recent DESI DR2 Baryon Acoustic Oscillation — 1× in this paper
• Trace — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Sources

• Planck 2018 results. VI. Cosmological parameters
• A Comprehensive Measurement of the Local Value of the Hubble Constant with 1 km/s/Mpc Uncertainty from the Hubble Space Telescope and the SH0ES Team
• DESI DR2 Results II: Measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations and Cosmological Constraints
• Extended Dark Energy analysis using DESI DR2 BAO measurements
• Interpreting DESI's evidence for evolving dark energy
• On dataset tensions and signatures of new cosmological physics
• Nonparametric late-time expansion history reconstruction and implications for the Hubble tension in light of recent DESI and type Ia supernovae data
• Baryon Acoustic Oscillations from a Different Angle
• Evolving Dark Energy or Supernovae Systematics?
• The Bayesian view of DESI DR2 with unimpeded: Evidence and tension in a combined analysis with CMB and supernovae across cosmological models
• The Pantheon+ Analysis: Cosmological Constraints
• The Pantheon+ Analysis: The Full Dataset and Light-Curve Release
• The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Quasar Catalog: Sixteenth Data Release
• A Catalog of Quasar Properties from Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 16
• Gaia Data Release 3: Summary of the content and survey properties
• Gaia Data Release 3. Summary of the variability processing and analysis
• A Hubble Diagram for Quasars
• Cosmological constraints from the Hubble diagram of quasars at high redshifts
• Quasars as standard candles III. Validation of a new sample for cosmological studies
• Are quasars reliable standard candles?

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