Scalable Bayesian Additive Models for Stellar Flare Detection via Amortized Gaussian Process Inference and Hidden Markov Models

arXiv:2606.22601 · stat.ML, cs.LG, stat.AP, stat.CO · Submitted 2026-06-21 · Read on arXiv

Rodrigo Herrera, Vianey Leos-Barajas, Gwendolyn Eadie, Elizaveta Semenova, James Davenport

stat.ML, cs.LG, stat.AP, stat.CO

Submitted: 2026-06-21

Comments: Main paper: 19 pages, full paper: 34 pages. 4 appendices. 9 main figures, 21 figures in total. 4 tables. Poster Presenter, SSC 2026 (Statistical Society of Canada Annual Meeting) and ISBA 2026 (International Society for Bayesian Analysis World Meeting)

Code: https://github.com/rodri98bh/VAE_

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Gaussian Process — 11× in this paper
• Latent Space — 11× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Bayesian Inference — 10× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Fidelity — 8× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Accuracy — 7× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Core — 5× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Variational Autoencoder (VAE) — 4× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Activation Function — 3× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Gaussian Processes (GPs) — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• No-U-Turn Sampler — 3× in this paper
• Regularization — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Robustness — 2× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Aperture — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Aperture Photometry — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Bayesian Framework — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Benchmark — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Clustering — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Consistency — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Decode — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Generalizability — 1× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Generalization — 1× in this paper · explained in 13 episodes
• Generative Model — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Generative Modeling — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Grounding — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Pre-Search Data Conditioning Simple Aperture Photometry — 1× in this paper
• Trace — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite — 1× in this paper
• Variational Bayes — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• alpha — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode

Sources

• Detecting stellar flares in photometric data using hidden Markov models
• Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes
• Composable Effects for Flexible and Accelerated Probabilistic Programming in NumPyro
• PriorCVAE: scalable MCMC parameter inference with Bayesian deep generative modelling

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