Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction
Anna Asch, Raphael Rossellini, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Rebecca Willett
physics.ao-ph, stat.AP, stat.ML
Submitted: 2026-06-17
License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
Terminology
Sources
- Designing probabilistic AI monsoon forecasts to inform agricultural decision-making
- FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators
- Calibrated Conformal Prediction Intervals for Microphysical Process Rates
- Predicting Beyond Training Data via Extrapolation versus Translocation: AI Weather Models and Dubai's Unprecedented 2024 Rainfall
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