Unlocking the Forecasting Economy: A Suite of Datasets for the Full Lifecycle of Prediction Market: [Experiments & Analysis]

arXiv:2604.20421 · cs.LG · Submitted 2026-04-22 · Read on arXiv

cs.LG

Submitted: 2026-04-22

Updated: 2026-09-25

Code: https://github.com/polymarket/ctfexchange

Terminology

• Calibration — 10× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Ablation — 8× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Benchmark — 7× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Consistency — 7× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Alignment — 4× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Consumer Price Index — 2× in this paper
• Core — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Robustness — 2× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Ablation study — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Accuracy — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Actor — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Agentic AI — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Aggregation — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Clustering — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Downstream Tasks — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy — 1× in this paper
• Systematic Bias — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Trace — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Sources

• The Price of Interoperability: Exploring Cross-Chain Bridges and Their Economic Consequences
• EX-Graph: A Pioneering Dataset Bridging Ethereum and X
• A Midsummer Meme's Dream: Investigating Market Manipulations in the Meme Coin Ecosystem
• SoK: Market Microstructure for Decentralized Prediction Markets (DePMs)
• Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?
• Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets
• Agentic AI for Clustering, Relationship Discovery, and Semantic Trading in Prediction Markets

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