Lightcurve Modelling of 2,205 ZTF DR2 Type Ia Supernovae: Implications for SN Ia Physics and Cosmology

arXiv:2602.02677 · astro-ph.HE · Submitted 2026-02-02 · Read on arXiv

astro-ph.HE

Submitted: 2026-02-02

Updated: 2026-09-11

Comments: Accepted in MNRAS. 28 pages 21 figures

Code: https://github.com/nikhil-sarin/redback

License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The gist: We fit the multi-band light curves of 2,205 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the Zwicky Transient Facility DR2 with a one-zone radioactive decay model with a phenomenological addition to include Fe

Terminology

Abstract

We fit the multi-band light curves of 2,205 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the Zwicky Transient Facility DR2 with a one-zone radioactive decay model with a phenomenological addition to include Fe recombination physics. We find a strong correlation between inferred nickel mass and SALT2 stretch, which our simplified modelling links to longer diffusion times in more massive ejecta, offering a physical basis for the brighter-slower relation. SNe Ia in low-mass hosts (10(M*/M) < 10) produce about 12% more 56 Ni than those in high-mass hosts, linking the host-galaxy mass step to ejecta properties and hinting at metallicity or age-dependent burning efficiencies. A pseudo-bolometric comparison provides lower limits on the nickel masses, highlighting their sensitivity to SED-level assumptions. Injection-and-recovery tests with realistic ZTF sampling and the same model recover the nickel scale but show significant sensitivity to distance and opacity assumptions; individual-event point estimates are therefore model-dependent. Accounting for selection biases and broad individual-event posteriors, hierarchical modelling of 902 SNe (z at most 0.06) gives Gaussian population distributions with μ ej = 1.26 plus or minus 0.01 M (σ ej = 0.33 plus or minus 0.01 M) and μ Ni = 0.64 plus or minus 0.06 M (σ Ni = 0.42 plus or minus 0.02 M). This work provides a step towards physical characterization of the local SN Ia population while quantifying diversity and environmental dependencies relevant to progenitor physics and precision cosmology.

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