Diagnosing Conformal Prediction Failures Under Distribution Shift: A COVID-19 Case Study

arXiv:2601.00908 · cs.LG, cs.AI, stat.ML · Submitted 2026-01-01 · Read on arXiv

cs.LG, cs.AI, stat.ML

Submitted: 2026-01-01

Updated: 2026-08-27

Terminology

• Conformal Prediction — 29× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Distribution Shift — 29× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Robustness — 12× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Calibration — 7× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Adaptive Conformal Inference — 5× in this paper
• Benchmark — 5× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Exchangeability — 4× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Generalization — 3× in this paper · explained in 13 episodes
• Adaptive Prediction Sets — 2× in this paper
• Core — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Covariate Shift — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Empirical Coverage — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Ablation — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Ablation Studies — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Adaptation — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Aggregation — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Embeddings — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Failure Modes — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Generalizability — 1× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Interpretability — 1× in this paper · explained in 15 episodes
• Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology — 1× in this paper
• Regularization — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• SHAP values — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Uncertainty Quantification — 1× in this paper · explained in 8 episodes

Sources

• Shifts: A Dataset of Real Distributional Shift Across Multiple Large-Scale Tasks

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