All Emulators are Wrong, Many are Useful, and Some are More Useful Than Others: A Reproducible Comparison of Computer Model Surrogates

arXiv:2512.09060 · stat.CO, stat.ML · Submitted 2025-12-09 · Read on arXiv

stat.CO, stat.ML

Submitted: 2025-12-09

Updated: 2026-08-30

Code: https://github.com/knrumsey/spareGParts

Project page: https://garthtarr.github.io/BayesianLasso

Terminology

• Accuracy — 13× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Calibration — 13× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Clustering — 7× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Benchmarking — 6× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Fidelity — 6× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Bayesian Additive Regression Trees — 5× in this paper
• Bayesian Inference — 5× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Benchmark — 5× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Los Alamos National Laboratory — 5× in this paper
• Active Learning — 4× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Bayesian Committee Machine — 4× in this paper
• Bayesian Linear Model — 4× in this paper
• Generative Bayesian Computation — 4× in this paper
• Relevance Vector Machine — 4× in this paper
• Bayesian Neural Network — 3× in this paper
• Core — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Regularization — 3× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Empirical Coverage — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Interpretability — 2× in this paper · explained in 15 episodes
• Robustness — 2× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Active Learning Strategy — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Adaptation — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Bayesian Adaptive Spline Surfaces — 1× in this paper
• Bayesian Framework — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Bayesian Optimization — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Conformal Prediction — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Consistency — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Diffusion Model — 1× in this paper · explained in 8 episodes
• Generalization — 1× in this paper · explained in 13 episodes
• Hybrid Approach — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• In Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory — 1× in this paper
• Loss Function — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Theoretical Guarantees — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Sources

• Estimating Shapley Effects in Big-Data Emulation and Regression Settings using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees
• Generative Bayesian Computation as a Scalable Alternative to Gaussian Process Surrogates
• Nonstationary Gaussian Process Surrogates

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