What If They Took the Shot? A Hierarchical Bayesian Framework for Counterfactual Expected Goals

arXiv:2511.23072 · eess.SP, cs.AI, stat.AP · Submitted 2025-11-28 · Read on arXiv

eess.SP, cs.AI, stat.AP

Submitted: 2025-11-28

Updated: 2026-10-14

Terminology

• Bayesian Framework — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Benchmark — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• XGBoost — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

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