Using Cosmic Rays to Predict the Weather: Meteorological Data Assimilation of Atmospheric Muon Flux Data

arXiv:2509.04627 · physics.ao-ph, astro-ph.EP, astro-ph.IM, hep-ex · Submitted 2025-09-04 · Read on arXiv

physics.ao-ph, astro-ph.EP, astro-ph.IM, hep-ex

Submitted: 2025-09-04

Updated: 2026-07-28

Journal ref: Phys. Rev. D 114, 023060. Published 30 July, 2026

DOI: 10.1103/sb4j-gjgq

Code: https://github.com/mceq-project/MCEq

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Data Assimilation — 23× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Tropical Cyclone — 9× in this paper
• Accuracy — 4× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Anisotropy — 4× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Calibration — 2× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Bayesian Inference — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Copula — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Data Assimilation Research Testbed — 1× in this paper
• Entrainment — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Universal Time Coordinate — 1× in this paper
• Verification — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Weather Research and Forecast — 1× in this paper

Sources

• Seasonal variation of atmospheric muons in IceCube
• Spectrum of cosmic-ray nucleons and the atmospheric muon charge ratio
• The hadronic interaction model SIBYLL 2.3c and Feynman scaling
• The Scintillator Upgrade of IceTop: Performance of the prototype array

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