Quantifying Aleatoric and Epistemic Dynamics Uncertainty via Local Conformal Calibration

arXiv:2409.08249 · cs.RO, cs.SY, eess.SY · Submitted 2024-09-12 · Read on arXiv

cs.RO, cs.SY, eess.SY

Submitted: 2024-09-12

Updated: 2025-03-12

Project page: https://um-arm-lab.github.io/lucca

Terminology

• Calibration — 51× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes
• Conformal Prediction — 24× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Epistemic Uncertainty — 20× in this paper · explained in 9 episodes
• Aleatoric Uncertainty — 12× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Action Space — 11× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Accuracy — 6× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Empirical Coverage — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Stochastic Dynamics — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Trace — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Reinforcement Learning — 2× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Uncertainty Quantification — 2× in this paper · explained in 8 episodes
• Active Learning — 1× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Admissibility — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Alignment — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Copula — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Covariate Shift — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Deep Reinforcement Learning — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Exchangeability — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Fidelity — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Objective Function — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Robustness — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• System Identification — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Time Series Forecasting — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Wasserstein Distance — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes

Sources

• A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification
• Robust Safety under Stochastic Uncertainty with Discrete-Time Control Barrier Functions
• Regression Trees for Fast and Adaptive Prediction Intervals
• Split Localized Conformal Prediction

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